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Post by johnny on Nov 4, 2024 10:59:04 GMT
Remember, remember the 5th of November Gunpowder, Treason and Plot America votes Tuesday 5th November for a new President (and Congress) You probably know the election is not based on popular vote but the Electoral College. That is 538 votes from the parties' delegates. This number is based on 100 Senate members, 435 House of Representative members and 3 Washington DC members (who bizarrely don't have Senators or House Members (well, voting members) A candidate who wins the most votes (not necessarily a majority) in s State, wins all the delegates. The State with the highest number is California with 55. A few have just 3 including Alaska (safe Republican) and Hawaii (safe Democrat). Two states don't have Winner Takes it All system. Nebraska (5 votes, Republican leaning) and Maine (4 votes, Democrat leaning) There are 7 swing states that determine the election. "Sun States" In the West, Arizona and Neveda. Won by Biden in 2020. I expect Harris to hold these. In the East, North Carolina and Georgia. The former held by Teump, the latter normally Republican but won by Democrat Biden in 2020. I expect Trump to win both these. "Rust Belt" Mitchigan, Wisconsin and Pennyslvannia. Traditional Democrat States who voted Republican in the 1980s for Reagan and 2016 for Trump. I expect Harris to win Mitchigan and Wisconsin and Trump to prevail in the keyest State, Pennyslavia. Adding these into the Financial Times Electoral College Calculater. Trump wins, 270 to 268. I expect Harris will have more in the popular vote, as Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Al Gore in 2000 - but lose to this strange Electoral system. Tap in your predictions and see how it comes out for you 😀 ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/polls/If a tie on 269 each. The Electoral College would decide. Some delegates could switch or not vote. But if still a tie would go to the House of Representatives. This is likely to be held by the Republicans but narrowly (and there are some anti-Trump republicans including Liz Chenney). But this scenario is theoretical and not likely. The Democrats are expected to hold the Senate. There is a bias in the Electoral College to the Republicans. The Democrats pile up very huge wins in states on both West Coast and North East. But that is wasted under the Electoral College system. The Dems would need to be 2 to 3 points clear to be sure of clinching victory. Harris is only 1 point clear. Biden was over 4 points clear in 2020. PS - If you know how the US Presidential system works, I hope this wasn't patronising. If you don't (and why should you unless a political geek like me),I hope it was informative. Giving my own personal opinion, I think the Electoral System is stupid - and undemocratic. Hey, why not have Popular Vote? If no candidate gets 50% on first round, then a run off on the second. |
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Post by foreverfan on Nov 4, 2024 15:48:50 GMT
Thanks for the reminder Johnny, and hey does no harm to refresh ones memory...
I've a passing interest,enough to have a " light" discussion in politics, but an interest all the same.
As for the US, it appears even they don't know who they want, Trump rightly or wrongly always has a bad press especially here in the U.K., and most of us would find it incredibly hard to understand why 50% of the voting electorate in US would vote for him... it would look a hands down win for Harris...but apparently not.....
It's going to be an interesting few days or years !!
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Post by johnny on Nov 4, 2024 17:57:13 GMT
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Post by johnny on Nov 5, 2024 9:43:19 GMT
Excluding the 7 swing States,
Kamala Harris 226
Donald Trump 219
To get to the winning line of 270
Kamala Harris could win the 3 rust belt states - Mitchigan, Wisconsin and Pennyslavia
She is unlikely to win imo North Carolina, won by Trump last time or Gerogia
She could win both Nevada and Arizona - but would need all 3 Rust Belt states
Donald Trump
Could get to 270 by holding North Carolina and winning ultra marginal Georgia. He must win Pennyslavia
Unlikely to win Mitchigan or Wisconson or Nevada. Could win Arizona bit needs that Pennyslavia win.
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Post by johnny on Nov 6, 2024 6:09:29 GMT
6 AM GMT
1 AM Washington DC
Trump to win!
Probably win ALL Swing States
Trump 312
Harris 226
Republicans expected to win both House AND Senate
Harris refuses to speak to supporters.
Major soul-searching in Democratic Party.
Triumph for Trump and Republicans
Media and Celebrities didn't swing it for Harris.
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Post by HOMETIME on Nov 6, 2024 8:45:19 GMT
Horrifying.
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Post by Alan on Nov 6, 2024 9:59:55 GMT
I don’t want to get too political, but he can only do another four years can’t he? He’s done four already. Or is their constitution for eight consecutive years? And if it’s just four, could he change it? Assuming the world survives the next four years anyway. President Musk next? He’s South African-born though, but does have US citizenship. Not sure how it works - could he stand? But I’ll stop there. |
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Post by HOMETIME on Nov 6, 2024 10:12:42 GMT
Four years seems like a short time, but his first term decisions had negative impact in Bidens term. A prime example being how he stacked the Supreme Court: their ruling that he is above the law for any "official" acts; the overturn of Roe-v-Wade (which has already resulted in women's deaths). Those court appointments are have no term limits.
Then there are the things he's sworn to do "from day 1", like mass deportations (including holding camps). Then there are the proposed tariffs, a likely nationwide abortion ban, the mass sacking of apolitical career civil servants, the cancellation of the removal of broadcast licences for channels that do not openly support him. Elon Musk running the country's finances, RFK responsible for the nation's health. And that's before the foreign policy issues. That Putin and Netanyahu are cheering should give us pause.
Something tells me I'm going to regret expressing a political opinion here. Sigh.
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Post by johnny on Nov 6, 2024 10:14:33 GMT
So what went wrong for Harris?
1. Economy, stupid. It's no good having good economic indicators on paper, if people don't feel it
2. Immigration, like in much of Europe, this is a hot topic and Democrats seen as "soft"
3. Abortion. The bottom line, most women won't face this difficult issue. People vote on self-interest. Additionally, whilst the West Coast and New England may be "liberal" - most of America is "conservative". Finally, it is an issue handed back to the individual States and reality is in some people could vote for abortion rights in a referendum AND Trump for President.
Culture War issues (apart from immigration) don't have electoral impacts.
4. Wars. Americans may be more isolationist/weary of International involvement abroad. Shambolic Afghan withdrawal, bored with Ukraine and for those who want intervention perception that Biden administration is not doing enough over Israel/Gaza.In the latter, people mistaken if they think Trump will put pressure on Israel.
5. Trump is clearly Marmite. There are some who don't like his personal behaviour, delusions and conspiracy theories but overlook that because they like his policies and/or dislike his opponents
6. Media and Celebrity endorsements mean nothing to most people. Intact, they may be counter-productive in era of many conspiracy theories and scepticism.
7. Harris. She was unknown. Biden, clung on too long and a successor was just thrown in at the deep end - without scrutiny or own party selection process.
America is different to European democracies. Clearly
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Post by HOMETIME on Nov 6, 2024 10:21:58 GMT
[...] Abortion. The bottom line, most women won't face this difficult issue. [...] ...until they do. Crisis pregnancies are not just unwanted pregnancies. Complications are not rare. In some US states, miscarriages are treated as abortions until medically proven otherwise. For example, Oklahoma convicted Brittney Poolaw of first-degree manslaughter after the miscarriage of her 15 to 17-week-old foetus and sentenced her to four years in prison. This isn't hypothesis, it actually happened. On this issue alone, I'm gobsmacked that any woman could have voted for the mango menace. |
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Post by johnny on Nov 6, 2024 10:26:54 GMT
I am more disappointed than surprised.
Women (and men) aren't thinking it might be their daughters who need abortions one day for a variety of reasons.
There is no "sisterhood" on this.
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Post by johnny on Nov 6, 2024 10:42:14 GMT
Just a final point. In Britain, we had our Trump. He was called Boris Johnson. Incapable of being honest, offensive sexist and racist language,and behaviour. Incapable of stringing a sentence together.
He though was able to win elections. First as a Conservative in a Labour city as Mayor. Then, latching on to Brexit, hijacking his conservative but pragmatic-ish party in the process for his self-advancement. Able to persuade non-Conservative voters with gimmicks, slogans and simple solutions.
Whilst a good campaigner, terrible in government.
The final Trump term will be interesting. Now that he won't face election again, will be see the real Trump, whoever that is?
To be US President you need to be born in the US - and not just a citizen.
Step forward New York born Boris Johnson?
Now, there's a thought.
PS. This was meant to be a factual, impartial explainer about the geeky issue of Electoral College. I blame Hometime for making it political 😀
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Post by Alan on Nov 6, 2024 11:07:51 GMT
Well, at least we don’t have any Trump supporters on here (yet, anyway. I’m probably speaking too soon).
So Musk can’t stand in future then? That’s something I suppose.
These are dark times for the world aren’t they? Talking generally, not just this. How does anyone sit and watch the news?!
Is it my age and experience or is the world a far more dangerous place now than it ever was in the early 80s when we were fearing nuclear war? If the politicians don’t finish us off then climate change will.
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Post by jj on Nov 6, 2024 13:10:12 GMT
Indeed. I can't believe Americans elected a convicted felon (who will be sentenced for 32 counts of fraud he committed, handed down by a court of law five months ago), an adjudicated rapist, a dangerously mentally unbalanced narcissist who wants to bring an end to the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law with his own self-appointed toady judges; a friend and admirer of dictators such as Putin and Xi; an illiterate and ignorant fool who is probably one of the most evil and crooked men America has ever produced, and given him the keys (again!!) to the most powerful, and potentially most destructive, office in the world.
Say goodbye to Ukraine (he'll let Putin take it) and also Taiwan (he'll let China take it). And this is just for starters.
Musk has said that, as Trump's Finance secretary, he will completely slash social security and health.
And the Trump family is gonna fleece their country's taxpayers as they did last time, but this time it'll be on steroids.
We are in for a very bumpy ride the next four years. Trump is gonna destroy or weaken every institution he can. He's already said he will throw out the Constitution and all its laws.
This is really frightening. America may become a tinpot dictatorship like Uganda was in the 1970s. Luckily, though, Uganda had no nuclear weapons. Neither did it have the world's biggest military.
I'm sh-t-scared of what will happen to the world and America in the next 4 years.
That's all I'm gonna say.
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Post by HOMETIME on Nov 6, 2024 13:15:46 GMT
[...]I blame Hometime for making it political 😀 I'll take the blame and wear it as a badge of honour!  And jj, I'm willing to bet an entire bag of jellybabies that all of those charges and convictions just magically disappear. Hashtag integrity. |
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Post by jj on Nov 6, 2024 23:58:18 GMT
I woke up and realised it wasn't a nightmare I'd been having, but the reality we need to live through from now on. I now feel exactly as I did the day after the first COVID lock-down was announced in 2021. The world has become completely unhinged.
Anyhow, Rolling Stone's main headline published this fact succinctly:
And my go-to person about these matters, the calm, measured, honest and reliable former U.S. Department of Justice prosecutor (for 30-years), Glenn Kirschner, had this to say (and I recommend that anyone who wants a calm, measured, honest and reliable update on this dangerous situation watch this clip): |
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Post by Alan on Nov 7, 2024 8:44:17 GMT
That’s an odd comparison, jj. The Covid lockdown was necessary to try and stop people dying. This is not the same. What would frighten me more is it we had another pandemic even more deadly than that one - more people would be in denial over it and ignore restrictions. The consequences of that really could be frightening. Also, it was 2020, not 2021 (though did carry over into that year). |
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Post by johnny on Nov 7, 2024 9:24:54 GMT
Covid lockdowns were way disproportionate and not something that will be repeated or obeyed. By all means protect the elderly/vulnerable but not the blanket ban. On abortion, the decision was transferred to the individual States. It will be at State level, not Federal you can get changes. It was a mistake to turn the election into a referendum on abortion - however important that was. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_law_in_the_United_States_by_stateThe demonisation of Trump also backfired. Sure, he has his flaws and not somebody I would support but comparisons with dictators or Nazis is over the top. As a rule, if you start comparing politicians to Hitler or the Nazia you have not only lost the argument but lost the plot too. The Democrats lost not just the Presidency but both Houses of Congress, after just one term in office this time. They need to evaluate what went wrong. They lost support amongst Latino voters, black men, and the surge in female voters not ad big as expected. Trump had a 13 point lead amongst men. Harris only had an 8 point lead, 53 to 45 among women. She had less female support than Biden got. On the youth vote. Harris had a lead over Trump - but by just 6 points. Biden led by 25 points and Hillary Clinton by 18 in this demographic. www.dw.com/en/us-election-trump-lured-key-democrat-demographics-to-secure-presidency/a-70713548Perhaps the bottom line is that Harris was running a campaign as if she were running for Governor of California not President of the United States. Too much preaching to the converted. And ironically not holding on to all of the hitherto converted let alone getting new voters. |
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Post by johnny on Nov 7, 2024 10:27:28 GMT
In other political news, the German "traffic light Coalition" of Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens has collapsed. The Free Democrats (pro EU, Liberal on social issues. Right-wing on economic issues) is out of the government. A vote of confidence will take place. New elections loom as Germany faces political instability. If mainstrwam parties of the Left, Right and Centre can't compromise and ignore voters' concernsbthe AfD is waiting in the wings. Be warned.
New elections in Ireland at the end of the month. My guess is that the ruling right of centre Coalition Government will be returned.
Sinn Fein which got 25% of the vote last time, climbed to 30% this time last year are now 18 to 20%
There's an awful lot of "Indepedents" in Ireland who really only want more money spent on their particular counties/constituencies.
The constitutional issue of Northern Ireland won't be an issue - bread and butter issues.
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Post by jj on Nov 7, 2024 10:55:38 GMT
That’s an odd comparison, jj . Well my feeling that this election win is equal to how I felt at the beginning of the pandemic is purely subjective, of course, so arguing that it's an odd comparison to make is not true, at least not where I'm concerned. Because that's how I feel, personally.
The next four years, I expect, will turn out to be the most diabolical that citizens in the rich Western countries, below the age of 80, will have experienced in their lifetimes, politically speaking, and socially too*. Especially in America. A proven criminal who has shown himself to have no morals and no care for anyone except for himself, who wants to override laws and become a dictator, becoming the leader of America, is the worst thing that can possibly happen to the world - again, as far as I'm concerned. I'm expecting both Putin and Xi (the Chinese premier) to take full advantage of Trump's presidency to grab parts of Europe and Asia as they please, because America will no longer have a government that stands in their way. Trump doesn't care. Americans who like Trump also do not care.
Also, in many American states, the rights, safety, public treatment, and freedoms of women, non-whites, LGBTQI and trans people are at stake, or at least compromised. Public derision and bullying of non-whites by white people in America increased exponentially during the last Trump administration. White males, especially, felt they'd been given license to bully blacks and treat them badly and talk to them insultingly during the last Trump administration. I saw a prominent black American tv news journalist cry openly, live on tv, about how bad it had been for himself and his family just during the last Trump administration. I remember how he broke down in tears when it was confirmed on tv that Trump had lost the 2020 contest. It really broke my heart to see him break down like that. Unfortunately for him, and millions of others, I fully expect that he and other black people will once again be openly bullied and intimidated all over again, just as they had during Trump's last presidency. Trump's own racism and prejudices were instantly mirrored in plenty of non-tertiary educated straight white males. America is, at heart, a deeply racist and misogynistic male-dominated society.
*At the same time, I fervently hope it turns out I'm wrong.
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Post by jj on Nov 7, 2024 11:56:10 GMT
I just saw a respected American political commentator on a news analysis program say that unfortunately we could all be on the cusp of seeing some of the darkest times in American and indeed world history, with regard to nuclear weapons and nuclear war.
All because of one stupid, narcissistic, selfish buffoon... |
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